Pauline Hanson has delivered one of the most dramatic polling shocks in recent federal politics, overtaking Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister while One Nation climbs to first place on the national primary vote.
The latest Sydney Morning Herald Resolve Political Monitor shows One Nation rising to 29%, a five-point jump in a single month, putting the party ahead of Labor on 28% and well clear of the Coalition, which has fallen to 20%.
The poll, conducted from June 8 to 13 with 1801 voters and a margin of error of 2.3 percentage points, marks a major break from Australia’s long-running two-party contest.
It suggests a growing number of voters are no longer treating One Nation as a protest vote on the fringe, but as a direct alternative to the major parties.
Hanson also leads the preferred prime minister measure, recording 33% support compared with 29% for Mr Albanese. Opposition Leader Angus Taylor trails on 16%, while 22% of voters remain undecided.
The result places fresh pressure on both Labor and the Coalition. For the government, the poll points to deepening voter frustration over cost-of-living pressures, migration, housing and trust in political leadership.
For the Coalition, the figures are equally damaging, showing One Nation gaining ground while the opposition struggles to present itself as the main alternative to Labor.
In a separate head-to-head contest between Mr Albanese and Mr Taylor, the Prime Minister sits on 31% support, slightly behind Mr Taylor on 32%. However, the large undecided vote of 36% shows neither major-party leader has secured clear public confidence.
Resolve pollster Jim Reed said the movement reflected a broader shift in voter behaviour, with Hanson’s appeal now extending beyond One Nation’s traditional base.
The poll does not predict an election result, but it does point to a significant realignment in voter sentiment.
Hanson’s rise, Labor’s slide and the Coalition’s weak primary vote have created a volatile political landscape where the major parties can no longer assume dissatisfied voters will simply return to the two-party system.
