Australians are already struggling to fill up their cars as petrol prices surge due to the war in Iran, and there are fears the cost of filling a prescription could spike next.
Logistical issues and supply shortages could see the price of medicines rise as the conflict in the Middle East continues. Even a small hike or brief shortage could hurt Aussies’ hip pockets and their health.
Dr Vinh Thai, a professor of logistics and supply chain management, said, “With no clear signs of the conflict easing, Australia may face longer shipping times, short-term shortages and temporary price increases for medical supplies as supply chain pressures build.”
But Royal Australian College of General Practitioners (RACGP) president Dr Michael Wright urged Aussies not to panic yet.
“If we do have a shortage, people shouldn’t panic because in most situations there will be an alternative,” he told nine.com.au.
“And for most people, given that most medications are on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, (PBS) it shouldn’t make a difference to the price.”
The price of medications that are not on the PBS may increase due to supply issues, but Wright couldn’t say by how much.
“It’ll depend on how long the supply chain is disrupted for.”
Right now, pharmaceutical companies are scrambling to reroute vital medical supplies as Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz tightens its grip on global trade flows.
With one of the world’s most critical shipping corridors effectively cut off, suppliers are being forced to shift from sea to costly air freight in a race to keep essential medicines flowing into Australia.
Drugmakers are also being forced onto longer, less predictable flight paths, steering clear of Middle Eastern airspace that can close without warning, compounding delays and costs.
At the same time, supply risks are mounting for petroleum-derived inputs essential to everyday medicines such as paracetamol, ibuprofen and antibiotics, along with other raw materials sourced from the region.
The combined strain is expected to ripple through to Australia in the form of production slowdowns, tightening supply and upward pressure on prices.
Medicines Australia say shipping disruptions have, so far, typically resulted in delays of only a few days.
The industry body added it is closely monitoring developments, with pharmaceutical companies activating contingency plans to safeguard supply.
“We would also encourage patients not to panic buy or stockpile medicines, as this can place unnecessary pressure on supply and impact access for others,” it said
Australia has grappled with persistent medicine shortages since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, exposing deep vulnerabilities in its supply chain.
There are currently nearly 400 medicines in short supply nationwide, including 37 deemed critical, with more than 90 additional shortages anticipated in the months ahead.
“And the war in the Middle East has the potential to further disrupt those supply chains, meaning that it’s harder for medications to get here,” Wright said.
The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) continues to monitor shortages and has previously moved to fast-track alternative treatments during periods of acute scarcity.
Yet with Australia importing around 90 per cent of its medicines — and the bulk of the raw ingredients used to produce them — the prospect of prolonged disruption is increasingly concerning.
“Our patients are very concerned about the impact of medicines supply,” RACGP Expert Committee quality care chair Professor Mark Morgan said in a statement.
“There are few things more concerning than potentially losing access to a medicine you have been advised to take for your health.”
The war in the Middle East has laid bare just how exposed Australia’s pharmaceutical supply chain is to global shocks, underscoring its heavy reliance on overseas production.
“One thing we probably could do more of is we could produce more medications locally, and that would be a way to get around some of our dependencies,” Wright said.
Morgan echoed the call, arguing that a stronger domestic manufacturing base would help cushion Australia against the supply risks it now faces.
In the UK, which similarly depends on imported medicines, Independent Pharmacies Association chief executive Dr Leyla Hannbeck has urged swift government intervention to stave off widespread shortages.
She has called for shorter prescription durations to curb stockpiling, alongside legislation to block the export of 150 medicines.
